Finsbury Foods & BDI Mining

But first......Today is the big day in so far as organising Heron Towers goes. I am not entirely sure why I arranged so many things to happen on the same day - I am a fool, C'est la vie. At zero eight hundred hours, a van will arrive carrying a crate of belongings that has been in storage since August last year - we could quite comfortably do without everything in the aforementioned container, as we have managed very well. I have a horrible feeling though, that being the lazy idiot I am, I may well have purchased quite a few duplicate items that went into storage just to make for an easy life. Meanwhile the Sky TV chaps are coming - goodness knows when. Again, more organisation on my part. Meanwhile, the floor man will size up and get ready to bring in his heavy-duty sanding machines and finally, the plasterer will get his hands to work. Of course, with all these workmen around, I am going to need to make sure my wife is within viewing distance at all times as she has a real softspot for trades people - especially men with spanners. On with the markets........

Finsbury Foods (FIF)

We have done well with Finsbury Foods. We are now up exactly 100% since I first suggested buying in, in mid-October 2005. But, revisiting the shares last night, although I can see decent longer term potential, we really need to part company with this stock as I simply do not see much in the way of short term upside. From a charting point of view, I am sure everyone would tell me I am quite mad, as its going up in a nice wiggedly line (goodness knows what that means) - and from a newsflow point of view, yes things look good. Only two weeks ago, the non-exec deputy chairman acquired 194,000 shares at 105p. What's more, the 2008 multiple is only 11.1. But again, in much the same way as Hornby yesterday, unless a takeover emerges, I just cannot see Finsbury Foods going anywhere fast. The shares trade on a prospective multiple of 17.5 times this year's estimates. Too rich I think and I suspect, contrary to popular opinion, the risks of failing to meet these numbers are greater than is perceived to be the case.

The food sector is never easy. Yes, Finsbury is strongly positioned in the growing premium sectors of its markets and in the recently acquired Lightbody, it now has the leading player in the most value-added sector of the cake market - celebration cake. But I am of the mind that we have had our fun, the rating is now more than fair, the food market is tricky and could be impacted by a rocky retail climate and I think the risks are greater than the market does, with regards to estimates. Those that followed my advice in 18 months ago, are up 100% on their holding. Its time to move on - "sell".

BDI Mining (BMG)

We got there in the end. Those that have followed my advice with this one, should have done very nicely indeed. I was a little too early with this BDI, as can sometimes be the case - though those that used the opportunity to top up at 20.25p in September, as per my recommendation, will now be sitting very pretty. In fact, so convinced was I of the value, that I advised buying on 29 different occasions, each and every time, below the price at which a cash offer was presented to the group on Wednesday of this week.

Gem Diamonds has made a recommended cash offer of 37p per share for BDI, valuing the group at £41.9 million. It pretty much looks like a done deal as shareholders representing 59.6% of the issued share capital have given irrevocable undertakings to accept. And so, whilst I was convinced we would see 50p or so from this one, there is no point fighting a battle you can't win. A better offer will not come through now. Accept the offer or sell in the market.

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